How to check whether a degree has a future
More and more high-school graduates are asking themselves whether a degree has a future — and rightly so, since the job market changes faster than it used to: automation, artificial intelligence and new technologies can reshape an entire profession within a few years. The good news is that you don't have to guess. There is concrete, publicly available data that shows how graduates of a given field actually fare on the job market — long before you submit your university application.
Why this question matters more than ever
Fifteen years ago, choosing a degree was largely a lifelong decision — today it's more of a starting point on a path that will keep evolving anyway. That doesn't mean the choice is irrelevant, though. Degrees that prepare graduates well for automation-resistant, in-demand professions give a noticeably better start: an easier first job, a higher starting salary, and shorter spells of unemployment after graduation. It's also worth remembering that the degree itself isn't everything — the extra skills you pick up along the way matter too, such as digital tools, foreign languages, or analytical skills that boost your flexibility in a changing market.
Where to find data before you decide
Instead of relying on gut feeling or friends' opinions, it's worth turning to solid sources:
- ELA (Economic Fates of Graduates) — Poland's nationwide system at nauka.gov.pl showing actual earnings and time-to-employment for specific degrees and universities.
- The Occupation Barometer — an annual public forecast classifying jobs as in shortage, balanced, or in surplus by region.
- GUS (Statistics Poland) — nationwide employment, unemployment, and labour-market data.
- wynagrodzenia.pl and similar services — indicative salary ranges for specific professions.
None of these sources gives a complete picture on its own — only combining several of them lets you assess the situation reliably. ELA data shows the past (how previous graduates fared), the Occupation Barometer tries to forecast the coming year, and GUS provides broader macroeconomic context.
5 signals a degree has a future
- Low graduate unemployment rate in ELA data, consistent across several cohorts.
- Related occupations appearing on shortage lists in the Occupation Barometer — see also our overview of 2026 shortage occupations.
- Resistance to automation — jobs requiring empathy, creativity and complex decision-making are holding up well despite AI's growth.
- Rising or stable graduate earnings over several years, not just a one-off spike.
- Real employer demand — the number of job postings in the field and how fast it's growing.
Warning signs worth noticing
It's equally important to spot red flags: a high share of graduates working outside their trained field, a shrinking number of job postings, professions explicitly flagged as automation-prone (we cover this in our article on jobs and artificial intelligence), and a curriculum that hasn't been updated to reflect new technology. It's also worth checking whether a profession requires a license or state certification — such professions tend to be more stable, since the entry barrier limits an oversupply of candidates.
Where to check the data — a quick cheat sheet
| Source | What you'll find | How often updated |
|---|---|---|
| ELA (nauka.gov.pl) | Graduate earnings and employment by degree and university | Annually |
| Occupation Barometer | Shortage / balanced / surplus occupations by region | Annually |
| GUS | General employment and unemployment trends | Quarterly/annually |
| wynagrodzenia.pl | Indicative salary ranges | Continuously |
Keep in mind: this data is indicative — it shows trends and a starting point for further analysis, not a guarantee of specific earnings or employment.
Does AI change the answer to this question
Artificial intelligence is speeding up changes in the job market, but it rarely invalidates an entire degree — more often it changes the nature of the professions it leads to. That's why it's worth looking not only at the degree itself, but also at the specific skills you'll develop during it, and whether the curriculum accounts for new tools and technologies.
How to check it step by step
Start with a shortlist of 2–3 degrees you're considering. For each one, check ELA data and where related occupations sit in the Barometer. Also see our ranking of degrees by graduate earnings to compare them side by side. Finally, weigh this data against your own interests and strengths — a degree "with a future" that doesn't interest you at all rarely leads to career success. If you're still unsure where to start, try our free, 10-minute degree and career matching test, which factors in your aptitudes alongside real labour-market data.
Summary
A degree's future prospects can largely be assessed from available data rather than gut feeling alone. It's a good starting point for a conversation with a careers adviser or family — but it doesn't replace individual consultation, since the final decision always also depends on your interests and strengths.
Frequently asked questions
Can you say for certain that a degree has no future?
Not with 100% certainty. ELA data, the Occupation Barometer and GUS statistics show trends and probabilities, not guarantees — the job market keeps changing, so treat this data as a starting point, not a verdict.
How do I check ELA data for a specific degree?
Visit the nauka.gov.pl portal's Economic Fates of Graduates section, select the university and degree you're interested in, and you'll see time-to-employment and indicative graduate earnings.
Do humanities and social science degrees have a future too?
Yes, as long as graduates pick up additional digital and practical skills — many jobs requiring empathy and communication are hard to automate.
What if the degree I'm interested in scores poorly in the data?
It doesn't have to be the end of the road — check whether a specialization or extra qualifications improve the prospects, and discuss your choice with a careers adviser.